4 Kids Entertainment, Inc
Notes
KDE
October 14, 2003
On September 26, 2003, Motorola announced they would be supplying high-speed, low-power chipsets to enable wireless adapter accessory for Nintendo’s Game Boy Advanced (GBA) and GBA SP. This will be launched in Japan during the first half of 2004. Supposedly this will work in a similar fashion to Bluetooth, letting games be played over wireless devices ( we have read that the wireless devices will have to be nearby to play one another). The offering will be many months behind Nokias N-Gage . Nokia does not have the gaming experience that Nintendo has, nor does it have the software, customer base and device (GBA). Customers will not need to buy a new gaming system, nor are there additional wireless fees. The first 2 games will be “Pokemon FireRed” and ” Pokemon LeafGreen”. Motorola and Nintendo may team up to make this more of a global wireless device, like the Nokia N-Gage.
June 6, 2003
Some NPD notes of ours from some readings
Top 10 Selling Games for PS2 for April 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $’s Projected Units
1 T.CLANCY’S SPLINTER Ubi Soft 13,514,920 $ 273,295
2 DEF JAM VENDETTA Electronic Arts 11,366,810 $ 230,608
3 NBA STREET VOL 2 Electronic Arts 9,497,958 $ 190,531
4 MIDNIGHT CLUB II Take-Two Interactive 8,616,683 $ 176,142
5 DYNASTY WARRIORS 4 Koei 4,962,962 $ 100,758
6 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE Take-Two Interactive 4,672,966 $ 101,955
7 MVP BASEBALL 2003 Electronic Arts 4,082,820 $ 83,375
8 SOCOM:SEALS W /HEADSET Sony 3,444,683 $ 58,935
9 X2:WOLVERINES REVENGE Activision 3,329,350 $ 69,716
10 YU-GI-OH! DUELISTS Konami 2,933,491 $ 63,564
Top 10 Selling Games for GBA for April 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $’s Projected Units
1 POKEMON RUBY Nintendo 7,566,362 $ 240,616
2 POKEMON SAPPHIRE Nintendo 7,116,988 $ 226,684
3 YU-GI-OH! W ORLDWIDE Konam i 4,030,788 $ 112,562
4 GOLDEN SUN: LOST AGE Nintendo 3,294,253 $ 107,679
5 HAMTARO: HEARTBREAK Nintendo 1,689,601 $ 56,831
6 SONIC ADVANCE 2 THQ 1,626,790 $ 54,849
7 ZELDA: LINK TO PAST Nintendo 1,485,777 $ 48,556
8 KIRBY: N IGHTMARE Nintendo 1,363,062 $ 45,527
9 METROID FUSION Nintendo 1,058,035 $ 35,719
10 YU-GI-OH! DUNGEONDICE Konam i 1,007,320 $ 33,733
April 2003 Market Share Rankings (Top 30 Companies)
Company Projected $’s Market Share
1 ELECTRONIC ARTS 63,537,600 $ 19.6%
2 NINTENDO OF AMERICA 43,537,030 $ 13.4%
3 UBISOFT 25,652,140 $ 7.9%
4 SONY 20,266,850 $ 6.3%
5 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 19,914,670 $ 6.1%
6 THQ 16,530,920 $ 5.1%
7 ACTIVISION 16,466,670 $ 5.1%
8 KONAMI OF AMERICA 15,845,070 $ 4.9%
9 ATARI INTERACTIVE 12,758,410 $ 3.9%
10 SEGA OF AMERICA 8,301,217 $ 2.6%
11 MICROSOFT 8,163,266 $ 2.5%
12 CAPCOM USA 7,348,430 $ 2.3%
13 NAMCO 7,337,589 $ 2.3%
14 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT 7,309,743 $ 2.3%
15 MIDWAY 6,976,281 $ 2.2%
16 VIVENDI UNIVERSAL 5,971,492 $ 1.8%
17 KOEI 5,677,895 $ 1.8%
18 SQUARE ENIX USA 5,310,104 $ 1.6%
19 LUCASARTS ENTERTAINMENT 3,077,622 $ 1.0%
20 MULTIPLE VIDEO GAME MANUFACTUR 2,893,975 $ 0.9%
21 BANDAI AMERICA 2,334,845 $ 0.7%
22 EIDOS INTERACTIVE 2,070,308 $ 0.6%
23 TDK MEDIACTIVE 1,998,430 $ 0.6%
24 BAM! ENTERTAINMENT 1,928,018 $ 0.6%
25 THE 3DO COMPANY 1,540,564 $ 0.5%
26 TECMO 1,308,059 $ 0.4%
27 MAJESCO 1,267,074 $ 0.4%
28 BETHESDA SOFTWORKS 782,179 $ 0.2%
29 AGETEC 776,798 $ 0.2%
30 CODEMASTERS USA 677,168 $ 0.2%
May 24, 2003
According to the US U.S. Bureau of the Census the U.S. Population Under Age 15 will be at its 8 year high this year with a projected 59 million and is projected to be as follows ( these are estimates I have interpreted from a graph) :
Year # in millions
1995 57.50
1996 57.75
1997 58.00
1998 58.20
1999 58.45
2000 58.65
2001 58.70
2002 58.80
2003 59.00
2004 59.05
2005 58.85
2006 58.79
2007 58.70
2008 58.85
2009 59.18
2010 59.48
Some notes from our readings
>>Top-10 U.S. toys ($)
For the second straight month, four separate Yu-Gi-Oh! (Konami) trading card
games ranked in the top-10 dollar sales rankings. The Yu-Gi-Oh! Metal Raiders
Booster pack became the No. 1 toy, knocking LeapFrog’s LeapPad books (No. 4)
out of the top spot.
Top 10 U.S. toys (units): Yu-Gi-Oh! & Hot Wheels still tops
Konami’s Yu-Gi-Oh! trading cards also topped the toy unit sales charts. Mattel’s
Hot Wheels vehicles took two of the top three spots, while its Matchbox vehicles
also ranked in the top 10. Hasbro’s Beyblades Starter Set (No. 5) has been a top
unit-seller since the start of the year.<<
Top 10 Toys, March 2003 ($ sales)
Ranking
Item Manufacturer Intro Date
Average
Retail Price
1 Yu-Gi-Oh! Met Raid 1st Ed Blst Konami Jul-02 $3.93
2 Yu-Gi-Oh! Starter Pack Konami Mar-03 $12.77
3 Beyblade Starter Pack Hasbro Dec-01 $6.86
4 LeapPad Books Asst LeapFrog Oct-99 $14.47
5 Yu-Gi-Oh! Pharaoh Unlmtd Blster Konami Oct-02 $4.00
6 Bratz Asst MGA Entertainment Jun-01 $14.04
7 02 Yu-Gi-Oh! Starter Konami May-02 $12.30
8 Hot WheelsBasic Cars Mattel <1986 $0.84
9 Armada Super Cons Asst Hasbro Jul-02 $10.12
10 Furreal Friends Cat Asst Tiger Electronics (Hasbro) Jun-02 $31.31
Top 10 Toys, March 2003 (Unit sales)
Ranking
Item Manufacturer Intro Date
Average
Retail Price
1 Hot Wheels Basic Cars Mattel <1986 $0.84
2 Yu-Gi-Oh! Metal Raider 1st Ed Blister Konami Jul-02 $3.93
3 Hot Wheels 03 Basic Asst Mattel Dec-02 $0.76
4 Yu-Gi-Oh! Pharaoh Unlmtd Blister Konami Oct-02 $4.00
5 Beyblade Starter Set Hasbro Dec-01 $6.86
6 Yu-Gi-Oh! Starter Pack Konami Mar-03 $12.77
7 Yu-Gi-Oh! Magic Ruler Unlmtd Blister Konami Sep-02 $3.93
8 Matchbox Vehicle Asst Mattel Mar-90 $0.84
9 Crayola Crayon 24 Ct Binney & Smith (Hallmark) <1986 $0.95
10 White Posterboard Carolina Pad & Paper <1986 $0.45
> During March, four different Yu-Gi-Oh! card/game sets ranked in the top-10
selling toys when based on dollar sales. Games/puzzles sales have been strong
since the beginning of the year (year-to-date sales up 26% year over year), and
the ongoing popularity of Yu-Gi-Oh! and relatively easy comps will likely keep
category growth going over the next few months. However, Yu-Gi-Oh! comps
get more difficult in the second half of 2003.
Yu-Gi-Oh! trading cards and games<<
March 26, 2003
Konami and Yu-Gi-Oh Stuff
We have been reading some reports about Konami. From what we have been reading, Konami is about to record some substantial charges. These charges will cause earnings to fall and perhaps turn into operating losses. The losses will occur because of charges to intangibles. Everything we read indicates that Yu-Gi-OH sales are “brisk”. The write-downs in Konami will be related to their Exercise Entertainment segment (mostly Konami Sports).
Konami has supposedly controlled shipments of Yu-Gi-Oh card games during January through March 2003. We have seen Konami estimates for card game sales brought down from Y41 billion to Y36.3 billion. According to some reports this estimate decrease is due to the controlled Yu-Gi-Oh card shipments mentioned above. Original projections we saw did not anticipate the controlled release of Yu-Gi-Oh cards. Nevertheless, Konami profits in the toy and hobby division are expected to increase, perhaps just not with the expected velocity that some sell-side analysts expected.
March 20, 2003
We really have very little to write so far on 4 Kids Entertainment. Expect earnings to be released on either March 26th or March 27th before the market opens. Those are not confirmed dates, but it is our understanding that is the goal of a release date. Some of 4 Kids Entertainment revenue streams are Yu-Gi-Oh , Fox Box , Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Pokemon, Ultimate Muscle , Monster Jam and Cabbage Patch Kids. We previously owned KDE from June 1, 1999 through June 5, 2001. We had previously eliminated material portions of our holdings on or around December 2, 1999 and then again on on or around July 20, 2000. The last of the holdings were eliminated on or around June 5, 2001. Stay tuned , we hope to have a lot to say in the future about this company.