June 15, 2022
S&P 500 3,811
10-Year Treasury 3.379%
Dear Clients and friends,
A client recently asked me, “Do you expect the market continue a downward trend? What are your thoughts?”
This was the essence of my response:
I don’t believe in timing the market, and really me nor anyone (whether they admit it or not) has any idea on the future of the direction of the market. I have written about this for a long time. We are having a difficult year of course. Gazprom was our largest position by far and has literally been priced at zero on our statements (this very well could be temporary and could provide a great deal of future value), and with that, we are still outperforming the S&P500 by a substantial margin. Yet, several months certainly much could happen, and our positive comps could reverse and turn to us materially underperforming the S&P500. We have large short positions in our taxable accounts which have helped anchor the fall of the market. Short positions are not allowed to be placed in tax deferred accounts. Before today the S&P500 was down 21.4% YTD. Our portfolios were down 16.1% YTD.
For our taxable accounts, we do have some substantial short positions. We have been reducing our short positions lately, including some the other day. I can honestly let you know that no one knows what the future will bring. Our portfolios do reflect my concern with the world economy and the USA economy. We have large positions, and when possible, we are invested in inflation hedges. These include banking, pharmaceuticals, energy, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) (via an ETF, STIP ($101.94).
The following are some past postings on our website regarding correcting markets from our website. You should see a recurring theme.
This note is from July 2020: https://rbcpa.com/investment_letter/
This note was from early in the Covid crisis: https://rbcpa.com/keeping-our-clients-in-touch-during-the-covid-19-crisis/
This note was from March 2020 as the market dropped 2,000 points: https://rbcpa.com/keeping-our-clients-informed-as-the-djia-dropped-over-2000-points-today/
This note was from 2016 when the DJIA dropped over 400 points: https://rbcpa.com/commentary-archive/quick-investment-thoughts-as-djia-is-dropping-400-points/
Lastly, here is one other post from 11 years ago which also was written after a large market drop: https://rbcpa.com/commentary-archive/quick-update-and-our-strategy-as-the-markets-have-corrected-20/
The reason I included several past notes (and there are many more which can be found here https://rbcpa.com/commentary-archive/ ) is that there is a constant theme. I keep emotions out of my investing. I realize that bear markets do occur. I try to position our portfolios for the long-term.
On another note, we currently offer CD accounts for our clients, and we do not currently charge for these services.
We Generally Can Open a Separate Account and Buy CDs or U.S. Treasuries for You Upon Written Request:
We currently offer a CD and/or a U.S. Treasury service to our clients. We currently don’t charge any fees at all for this service. If a client chooses to invest in CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries with us, we require that a separate account be set up. We require a separate account since our investment performance should not be judged based on CD and/or U.S. Treasury rates and deployment. If a client would like CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries, we only ask that you decide on how much funding will be placed into this CD and/or a U.S. Treasury account. We will buy CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries only in a discretionary manner, meaning we will not consult with you on what CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries we will be purchasing. We will always do our best to get you the best rate and terms available. When a CD and/or a U.S. Treasury comes due, we will reinvest in another CD and/or a U.S. Treasury. The investment in CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries will be based on our view of interest rates, and we will attempt to blend that in with your potential future liquidity needs. Should you have the need for funds from this account in the future, we insist that you put those liquidity needs in writing. The CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries we purchase will be subject to the rules of the FDIC, and or the U.S. Government. We strongly suggest that any CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries purchased be held until maturity, as large discounts to value or no liquidity could arise from trying to sell a CD and/or a U.S. Treasury prior to its maturity. Should you want to sell a CD and/or a U.S. Treasury prior to its maturity, we may require that you transfer the CD and/or the U.S. Treasury to an account not managed by us, and we would not partake in that sale.
At some point in the future, we may start charging for these CD and/or U.S. Treasury services. Should we choose to start charging for these services, we would give you ample time to make a proper decision as to continuing with us for CD and/or U.S. Treasury investing. At this point, we don’t promise, but we don’t think we would start charging for CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries, unless we thought CDs and/or U.S. Treasuries should be a staple in most if not all of our portfolios.
As always, please let me know if you would like to have a discussion to discuss finances or investments.
If you have any concerns, please reach out to me.
REDFIELD, BLONSKY & STARINSKY, LLC
Ronald R. Redfield, CPA, PFS
1. Redfield, Blonsky & Starinsky, LLC (RBS), only transacts business in states where it is properly
registered or excluded or exempted from registration requirements.
2. Past performance assumes reinvestment of dividends and other distributions and may not be
indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the
future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments
and/or investment strategies recommended and/or purchased by adviser), or product referred to
directly or indirectly in this presentation or on our website, or indirectly via a link to any thirdparty website, will be profitable or equal to corresponding indicated performance levels. The
investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate and, when redeemed, may be
worth more or less than their original cost.
3. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.
No client or prospective client should assume that information presented is a substitute for
personalized individual advice from the adviser or any other investment professional.
4. Historical performance results for investment indexes, such as the S&P 500, generally do not
reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investmentmanagement fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical
performance results of the S&P 500 Index. Whenever RBS performance is referred to, results
have been reduced by all fees, including RBS management fee.
5. Returns for the RBS portfolios have been calculated using actual time-weighted returns obtained
from all accounts over the time periods indicated. All RBS returns assume the reinvestment of
dividends and are shown net of the investment management fees and all other expenses. Please
see our form ADV for a full fee disclosure. Actual individual account performance may be
materially different from our composite results.
6. RBS files an annual form ADV, which includes an easy-to-read brochure. Form ADV is a
valuable read for anyone interested in learning more about RBS. Additional information about
Redfield, Blonsky &Starinsky, LLC is also available on the SEC’s website at
www.adviserinfo.sec.gov . The searchable IARD/CRD number for Redfield, Blonsky & Starinsky,
LLC is 128714.
7. The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest companies
in the United States as measured by market capitalization. The S&P 500 Index performance
assumes reinvestment of all dividends and distributions and does not reflect any charges for
investment management fees or transaction expenses, nor does the Index reflect any effects of
taxes, fees or other types of charges and expenses. The S&P 500 Index is one of many indices and
is not necessarily the most appropriate index when comparing performance results.