| 16-Sep-04 | LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. | ||||||||
| HYPOTHETICAL FINANCIAL MODEL | |||||||||
| FISCAL YEARS ENDED | |||||||||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| TOTAL REVENUES | $8,700 | $9,222 | $9,960 | $10,956 | $11,942 | $13,017 | $14,318 | $15,607 | $17,167 |
| % Change Y-O-Y | 6.00% | 8.00% | 10.00% | 9.00% | 9.00% | 10.00% | 9.00% | 10.00% | |
| COST OF SALES | $5,220 | $5,533 | $5,876 | $6,464 | $6,926 | $7,550 | $8,305 | $9,052 | $9,957 |
| % Total Revenues | 60.00% | 60.00% | 59.00% | 59.00% | 58.00% | 58.00% | 58.00% | 58.00% | 58.00% |
| GROSS PROFIT | $3,480 | $3,689 | $4,084 | $4,492 | $5,016 | $5,467 | $6,014 | $6,555 | $7,210 |
| % Total Revenues | 40.00% | 40.00% | 41.00% | 41.00% | 42.00% | 42.00% | 42.00% | 42.00% | 42.00% |
| R & D | $1,262 | $1,199 | $1,195 | $1,205 | $1,194 | $1,302 | $1,289 | $1,405 | $1,373 |
| % Total Revenues | 14.50% | 13.00% | 12.00% | 11.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 9.00% | 9.00% | 8.00% |
| SG&A | $1,479 | $1,660 | $1,793 | $1,862 | $1,911 | $1,952 | $2,148 | $2,341 | $2,575 |
| % Total Revenues | 17.00% | 18.00% | 18.00% | 17.00% | 16.00% | 15.00% | 15.00% | 15.00% | 15.00% |
| TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES | $2,741 | $2,859 | $2,988 | $3,068 | $3,105 | $3,254 | $3,436 | $3,746 | $3,949 |
| % Total Revenues | 31.50% | 31.00% | 30.00% | 28.00% | 26.00% | 25.00% | 24.00% | 24.00% | 23.00% |
| OPERATING INCOME (LOSS) | $740 | $830 | $1,096 | $1,424 | $1,911 | $2,213 | $2,577 | $2,809 | $3,262 |
| % Total Revenues | 8.50% | 9.00% | 11.00% | 13.00% | 16.00% | 17.00% | 18.00% | 18.00% | 19.00% |
| INTEREST EXPENSE | $322 | $225 | $200 | $175 | $150 | $150 | $150 | $150 | $150 |
| % Total Revenues | 3.70% | 2.44% | 2.01% | 1.60% | 1.26% | 1.15% | 1.05% | 0.96% | 0.87% |
| OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE) | $79 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| % Total Revenues | 0.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| INCOME BEFORE TAXES | $497 | $830 | $1,096 | $1,424 | $1,911 | $2,213 | $2,577 | $2,809 | $3,262 |
| % Total Revenues | 5.71% | 9.00% | 11.00% | 13.00% | 16.00% | 17.00% | 18.00% | 18.00% | 19.00% |
| TAXES | $0 | $290 | $383 | $498 | $669 | $774 | $902 | $983 | $1,142 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% |
| NET INCOME (LOSS) FROM OPERATIONS | $497 | $539 | $712 | $926 | $1,242 | $1,438 | $1,675 | $1,826 | $2,120 |
| % Total Revenues | 5.71% | 5.85% | 7.15% | 8.45% | 10.40% | 11.05% | 11.70% | 11.70% | 12.35% |
| SHARES O/S | 4,800 | 4,850 | 4,900 | 4,950 | 5,000 | 5,050 | 5,100 | 5,150 | 5,200 |
| EPS | $0.10 | $0.11 | $0.15 | $0.19 | $0.25 | $0.28 | $0.33 | $0.35 | $0.41 |
| EPS GROWTH USING ABOVE EPS | 7.54% | 30.65% | 28.69% | 32.81% | 14.67% | 15.33% | 7.94% | 14.99% | |
| INPUT POSSIBLE PRICE / SHARE | $3.25 | $3.58 | $3.93 | $4.33 | $4.76 | $5.23 | $5.76 | $6.33 | $6.97 |
| MARKET CAP. USING ABOVE PRICE | $15,600 | $17,339 | $19,269 | $21,412 | $23,792 | $26,432 | $29,364 | $32,617 | $36,227 |
| POSSIBLE PRICE EARNINGS RATIO | 31.42 | 32.14 | 27.06 | 23.13 | 19.16 | 18.38 | 17.53 | 17.86 | 17.09 |
| PEG RATIO USING ABOVE DATA | 4.26 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.58 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 2.25 | 1.14 | |
| PRICE TO REVENUES USING ABOVE | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 2.03 | 2.05 | 2.09 | 2.11 |
| PRICE / GROWTH FLOW RATIO | 9.27 | 10.07 | 10.11 | 10.16 | 9.40 | 9.74 | 9.58 | 10.24 | #DIV/0! |
| Price / (EPS + FWD 1Y R&D) | |||||||||
| PGFR cheap = 5 | |||||||||
| PGFR normal = 11 | |||||||||
| PGFR high > 15 | |||||||||