October 23, 2001
Q4’01
Conference Call Notes
Lucent Technologies Inc.
http://www.lucent.com/press/0801/010820.coa.html
My
review of earnings release:
1. Revenues of $ 5,155 are down from $ 5,819. This is a decrease of $ 664 M and (11.50 %).
2. Lucent says they expect to be profitable and cash flow positive in fiscal year 2002. This appears consistent with prior guidance.
3.
Lucent previously guided that Q4’01 GAAP loss would
be improved from June 30, 2001. This appears accurate, although I have not seen
GAAP loss yet.
4.
Expects headcount target of 57,000 to 62,000
employees to be reached by March 31, 2002.
Expects industry revenue decline will be 15-to-20 %, and Lucent’s target
market to decline by 10 % or more. Expects bottom line improvement for Q1’02
and sequential revenue decline. Seeing
early signs of increased spending in certain areas. Revenues believed to show
improvement in Q2’02.
5.
Expects to reach 35 % gross margins if F2003.
6.
Days Sales Outstanding (DSA) improved to 34 days.
7.
Capital expenditures targeted at $ 750 M for F2002.
8.
Pro-Forma Gross margin is 12.50 %, this is down
from 16.50 % in Q3’01 and down from 17.50 % in Q1’01.
9.
Research and Development was at 14.50 %, nearing
its target of 12.00 %.
10.
Short-term debt is $1,135 at Q4’01 compared to $3,215 in
Q3’01.
11.
Long-term
debt is $ 3,274 at Q4’01 compared to $ 2,995 in Q3’01.
Debt to Equity ratio is 40 %. This is down
substantially from 31.33 % in Q3’01. Equity seems to have gone down due to an
expected reduction of Goodwill. This seems to have caused the Debt/Equity ratio
to increase. This is not an unhealthy ratio.
According to my notes prior Debt to Equity was 25 % in F2000, 42 % in
F1999 and 35 % in F1998.
12.
Current
Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) is 1.58. This is similar to the 1.60 at Q3’01 and prior. This is not an
unhealthy ratio.
13.
Accounts Receivable
decreased $ 24 million from Q2’01, yet sales decreased $ 664 M. This should be
watched closely as a potential red flag. Accounts Receivable, as a % of
Revenues was 21.57 % in F2001, 28 % in F2000, 29 % in F1999 and 23 % in F1998.
F2001 is showing us the vendor financing write-offs. I previously commented that the 28 % in F2000 was “very
acceptable”. Hence F2001 is improved on that.
14.
Inventory
decreased $1,448 M. Inventory / Sales
Ratio is 17.12 %. This compares to 17.65 % in F2000. Not much of a change, yet
Inventory turns is a much better comparison.
15.
Gross
margin is 15.50 % on ProForma basis and 9.66 % on GAAP basis. This compares to
GAAP F2000 of 40.53 %, F1999 of 49.00 % and F1998 of 46.90 %. Lucent has
attacked this situation and has a goal of 35.00 % Gross Margins for F2003. Keep
in mind that F2002 is a planned rebuilding year.
16.
Acid Test
Ratio (CA- Inventory)/CL is 1.22 this is a healthy increase from F2000 of 1.01
and F1999 of 1.14. This will be explored further as I will explore the Flow
Ratio (CA- Cash)/(CL – STD) and the Cash king Ratio (CF – capex)/Sales.
17.
Flow Ratio is
desired to be less than 1.25. Current
Assets = $ 16,103, Inventory = $ 3,646, Current Liabilities = 10,169 and Short
Term Debt = $ 1,135.
Flow Ratio = (16103 – 3646) / (10169 – 1135) = 1.379. The ratio has shown
Improvement from 2.71 in F2000 and 2.99 in F1999.
You can read about Flow Ratio at this link
http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/rulemakerstep6.htm#10
Conference Call Notes
1. Vendor financing exposure declines 34 %. Results have been successful. Expected 1.1 billion of un-drawn in F2002, this is now guided to 1 billion to be drawn in F2002.
Question and Answer Session
1. Question
regarding guidance towards International vs. USA in Q1’02. Henry answered that
large North American customers are down for Q4’01 since September 11, 2001.
Henry sees a lift in that segment. Wireless has been strong. Large wire line
companies are discussing reduced capex. These are already in forecasts according
to Henry. Henry’s guidance takes into account September 11, 2001 and industry
climate. Lucent did not elaborate on International.
2. UBS
Warburg asks to comment on product performance. For example wireless was up 26
% sequentially. Wireless was strong
both domestically and internationally. Lucent cannot pinpoint if wireless will
remain strong in Q1’02. Optical business was “very strong” but down Quarter to
Quarter. Circuit Switching has continued to decline, as did Services Revenue.
3. New
family of optical products will be discussed next month at analyst meeting.
They see margin improvement from the new wireless and optic products. Domestic
revenue was 61 % in Q4’01 from 65 % in Q3’01. This hurt gross margins.
4. Optical
fiber sale is proceeding as previously discussed.
5. Cash
available was previously guided at 2.0 billion and is now 1.4 billion. Cash
number even though it went down is still cash flow positive.
6. Lucent
can’t comment of Q1’02 wireless. Said it is too early to tell, but general
impression is that Wireless remains strong.
7. Collections
for last quarter were $5.5 billion. Part of the decline, about $ 200 mil was
due to September 11, 2001. Part of the decline was due to lowered revenues.
8. China
showed strength in Q4’01. China was also strong in Q3’01. China expected to
remain strong in future.
9. Lucent
was asked and declined to give margin guidance for F2002. Lucent was asked
about achievability of positive EBITDA in Q2’02. This is required to be
achieved to spin-off Agere. Lucent believes and hopes that Agere will be
spun-off on or before March 31, 2002.
10. Lucent
explained that they have necessary liquidity to achieve goals and profitability
in the future. Key issues for Lucent are top lines and margins. Lucent
understands achievement of 35 % gross margins in F2003. This will be done via
volume, new product introduction and focus on core customers. Lucent claims
they have shown execution, via phase 1 execution. Now they will show us Phase 2
execution. Product technologies and customer support strategies will be discussed
in early November analyst meeting.
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