Microsoft Corporation

MSFT

 

Please see disclaimer at bottom of this document

 

 

 

December 17, 2005   Potential Scenario for Discussion Purposes Only

 

 Again, do your own due diligence! Do not rely on these notes or my discussion in making investment decisions.  My analysis is much more in depth, but here is a quick way I put things together.

 

Investment Thesis:

 

1.               Strong Cash Flow

 

2.               Blue Chip company

 

3.               Heavy insider ownership.  Bill Gates owns nearly 10%.

 

4.               Could continue to grow in excess of 10% for a decade.  Using rule of 72, if that were to happen, eps would be around $3.25 in 2015.  If you apply a p/e of 15 on that, the company would have a market price of $48.75.  This ignores the growth in cash.  If cash continues to grow at $1B  a month for 10 years (ignoring growth rates), then you could add $120B to market cap. Or $10 per share.  Hence one could argue that MSFT could have a value of $59 in 10 years.   That would be an 8% annual ROI.  Add to that the current dividend of 1.34%, you would have an accumulated PV ROI of 9.34%.  Again, all this ignores compounded growth of cash, even though we are increasing earnings.  The power of compounding would make the ROI much greater.

 

5.               A leader in corporate governance.  Keep in mind that Bill Gates is on the Board of Directors of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.  Gates makes on $1M annually in salary, and has no options.

 

6.               Accounting Conservatism:

 

a.     Does not capitalize software development costs.  They are allowed to capitalize and they choose to expense immediately.

 

b.     Very little stock options given out.  They use Restricted Stock Grants sparingly.  Dilution is NOT a concern.

 

c.     SEC in 2002 ( I think that was the year), made them put “tax benefit of stock options” in the operating section of Statement of Cash Flows, rather than financing section.  This increased their presentation of operating cash flow.  FAS 123R has adopted MSFT old presentation and this item will now go in Financing Section for all companies.

 

7.               Strong financial position is an understatement.

 

8.               Strong product pipeline. 

 

9.               Regulatory and Linux concerns possibly overblown (see notes below).

 

10.            XBRL

 

 

Investment Risks:

 

1.               Worldwide Piracy

 

2.               Linux

 

3.               email complacency (Outlook)

 

4.               failed offerings

 

5.               Google

 

6.               Regulation

 

7.                Inherent Industry Technological Disruption

 

 

 

Possible Scenarios:

 

 

 

 

 

Quick Projection for Discussion purposes only!!!

 

Microsoft Corporation

 

 

 

 

 

Quick Projection for Discussion purposes only

 

 

16-Dec-05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

$39,788

$44,762

$50,357

$56,651

$63,733

Cost of Revenues

($5,945)

($6,714)

($7,554)

($8,498)

($9,560)

Gross Profit

$33,843

$38,047

$42,803

$48,154

$54,173

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Research and Development

($4,953)

($7,162)

($8,057)

($9,064)

($10,197)

Sales and Marketing

($8,025)

($9,400)

($10,575)

($11,897)

($13,384)

General and Administrative

($1,776)

($2,596)

($2,921)

($3,286)

($3,696)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Operating Expenses

($14,754)

($19,158)

($21,553)

($24,247)

($27,278)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income

$19,089

$18,889

$21,251

$23,907

$26,895

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Income

$2,067

$1,500

$1,500

$1,500

$1,500

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre Tax Income

$21,156

$20,389

$22,751

$25,407

$28,395

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Tax

($6,982)

($7,136)

($7,963)

($8,892)

($9,938)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

$14,174

$13,253

$14,788

$16,514

$18,457

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAAP Adjustments (extraordinary, stock comp, etc)

($1,920)

$0

$0

$0

$0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income (GAAP)

$12,254

$13,253

$14,788

$16,514

$18,457

 

 

 

 

 

 

earnings per share (GAAP)

$1.12

$1.25

$1.40

$1.56

$1.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assumptions:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue Growth Rates

 

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

Gross Profit

 

15%

15%

15%

15%

Tax Rate

 

35%

35%

35%

35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Research and Development

 

16%

16%

16%

16%

Sales and Marketing

 

21%

21%

21%

21%

General and Administrative

 

6%

6%

6%

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS Growth Rates

 

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

12.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares Fully Diluted

10906

10600

10600

10600

10600

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Valuation Scenario

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Stock Price

 

$27.00

$27.00

$27.00

$27.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares Fully Diluted

 

10600

10600

10600

10600