16-Sep-04 LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
HYPOTHETICAL FINANCIAL MODEL
FISCAL YEARS ENDED
2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TOTAL REVENUES % Change Y-O-Y |
$8,700 | $9,222 6.00% |
$9,960 8.00% |
$10,956 10.00% |
$11,942 9.00% |
$13,017 9.00% |
$14,318 10.00% |
$15,607 9.00% |
$17,167 10.00% |
COST OF SALES % Total Revenues |
$5,220 60.00% |
$5,533 60.00% |
$5,876 59.00% |
$6,464 59.00% |
$6,926 58.00% |
$7,550 58.00% |
$8,305 58.00% |
$9,052 58.00% |
$9,957 58.00% |
GROSS PROFIT % Total Revenues |
$3,480 40.00% |
$3,689 40.00% |
$4,084 41.00% |
$4,492 41.00% |
$5,016 42.00% |
$5,467 42.00% |
$6,014 42.00% |
$6,555 42.00% |
$7,210 42.00% |
R & D % Total Revenues |
$1,262 14.50% |
$1,199 13.00% |
$1,195 12.00% |
$1,205 11.00% |
$1,194 10.00% |
$1,302 10.00% |
$1,289 9.00% |
$1,405 9.00% |
$1,373 8.00% |
SG&A % Total Revenues |
$1,479 17.00% |
$1,660 18.00% |
$1,793 18.00% |
$1,862 17.00% |
$1,911 16.00% |
$1,952 15.00% |
$2,148 15.00% |
$2,341 15.00% |
$2,575 15.00% |
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES % Total Revenues |
$2,741 31.50% |
$2,859 31.00% |
$2,988 30.00% |
$3,068 28.00% |
$3,105 26.00% |
$3,254 25.00% |
$3,436 24.00% |
$3,746 24.00% |
$3,949 23.00% |
OPERATING INCOME (LOSS) % Total Revenues |
$740 8.50% |
$830 9.00% |
$1,096 11.00% |
$1,424 13.00% |
$1,911 16.00% |
$2,213 17.00% |
$2,577 18.00% |
$2,809 18.00% |
$3,262 19.00% |
INTEREST EXPENSE % Total Revenues |
$322 3.70% |
$225 2.44% |
$200 2.01% |
$175 1.60% |
$150 1.26% |
$150 1.15% |
$150 1.05% |
$150 0.96% |
$150 0.87% |
OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE) % Total Revenues |
$79 0.91% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
INCOME BEFORE TAXES % Total Revenues |
$497 5.71% |
$830 9.00% |
$1,096 11.00% |
$1,424 13.00% |
$1,911 16.00% |
$2,213 17.00% |
$2,577 18.00% |
$2,809 18.00% |
$3,262 19.00% |
TAXES Tax Rate |
$0 0.00% |
$290 35.00% |
$383 35.00% |
$498 35.00% |
$669 35.00% |
$774 35.00% |
$902 35.00% |
$983 35.00% |
$1,142 35.00% |
NET INCOME (LOSS) FROM OPERATIONS % Total Revenues |
$497 5.71% |
$539 5.85% |
$712 7.15% |
$926 8.45% |
$1,242 10.40% |
$1,438 11.05% |
$1,675 11.70% |
$1,826 11.70% |
$2,120 12.35% |
SHARES O/S | 4,800 | 4,850 | 4,900 | 4,950 | 5,000 | 5,050 | 5,100 | 5,150 | 5,200 |
EPS | $0.10 | $0.11 | $0.15 | $0.19 | $0.25 | $0.28 | $0.33 | $0.35 | $0.41 |
EPS GROWTH USING ABOVE EPS | 7.54% | 30.65% | 28.69% | 32.81% | 14.67% | 15.33% | 7.94% | 14.99% | |
INPUT POSSIBLE PRICE / SHARE | $3.25 | $3.58 | $3.93 | $4.33 | $4.76 | $5.23 | $5.76 | $6.33 | $6.97 |
MARKET CAP. USING ABOVE PRICE | $15,600 | $17,339 | $19,269 | $21,412 | $23,792 | $26,432 | $29,364 | $32,617 | $36,227 |
POSSIBLE PRICE EARNINGS RATIO | 31.42 | 32.14 | 27.06 | 23.13 | 19.16 | 18.38 | 17.53 | 17.86 | 17.09 |
PEG RATIO USING ABOVE DATA | 4.26 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.58 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 2.25 | 1.14 | |
PRICE TO REVENUES USING ABOVE | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 2.03 | 2.05 | 2.09 | 2.11 |
PRICE / GROWTH FLOW RATIO | 9.27 | 10.07 | 10.11 | 10.16 | 9.40 | 9.74 | 9.58 | 10.24 | #DIV/0! |
Price / (EPS + FWD 1Y R&D)
PGFR cheap = 5
PGFR normal = 11
PGFR high > 15