GE - green co?
CEGE - Mentioned in Grants some time back
US Bank
WMT
APOL
CODI
SEB
TK
AMGN
JOE
WFMI
MIC - Infrastructure
CLAY - Bond infrastructure and review?

Guinness Atkinson Funds

2.    To see some activity in remodeling sector, kitchens and Baths.  This is from my good friend Steven Weinberg.

KBB Kitchen News

Kitchen and Bath Design News

3.    Keep reading and re-reading about 1929.

4.    Number of people born each year.

5.    Dow Theory said on 9/4, watch the lows of 8/16.  If both DJIA and DJT pierce those lows, bearish signal.  DJIA 12,845.78 and DJT 4672.35.

6.    Warren purchased in 1981?  Rates were 14%.  What made him invest when alternative rates were so high?  I could be incorrect on the date, and he may have discussed this in 1974.

7.    Compare Payout ratios.

8.    Screen for small caps?

9.    Charles Mulford likes the "Total Asset Ratio."  He feels it helps you determine quality of earnings, assets, etc.  Measure the velocity of change in ratio.

        Total Asset Ratio = Total Assets / (Revenues/365)

10.    Some Ramblings:

        A.    Investment Thesis: 

11.    What happened to investment companies in 1929?  How about 1973 -1974.  Specifically looking for the closed ends, Berkshires and Brookfields.

April 18, 2007

1.    Companies to consider watching on a rainy day

GE - market barometer
ASTI - Supposedly buys defaulted mortgages cheaply at $0.03 to $0.04.  Hi ROE.
UGTH - Percoco Spec
CLAY - loan investigator?
FORM - GTI
GS
BMY
Novartis
TDG
Hitachi

2.    Hickey said he liked EMC about 3 months ago

4.    What is Baupost doing?

5.    Don't forget the 2 minute drill

6.    Read Ben Franklin and consider Christian Science Monitor.

7.    Consider subscribing to TWST

8.    Percoco mentioned Alternative energy on 3/19/07 such as  DESC, Suntek, Energy Conversion, STP, Hydronix, Praxair and   Airgas Products

9.    Search the small caps

10.    I wrote CECO and SIGI on 2/7/07

11.    Spoke with BCA research, asked about 1973/74 scenarios.  They see ample liquidity.  "Watch Interest rates compared to GDP growth.  They mentioned that Global GDP should be looked at in comparison to interest rates.  Are rates rising during GDP slowdown?  If so, then liquidity gets drained."  "Watch inflation rates, TIPS and means of central banks."

12.    Consider Pairing COP, XOM and CVX.

13.    Read Wall Street Journal from 1929 - 1934

January 3, 2007

Watch Closely

1.    Inflation / Stagflation / Deflation

2.    Interest Rates

3.    Growth Rates

4.    Frustration levels

5.    Reversion always wins!!!!!

6.    Study the past to win in the future.

7.    Recession???

8.    World Credit. ( what happens if flowing water of equity stops?)

9.    Watch The Bonds!!!!

10.  Mortgage default rates, accruals and pay-option mortgages

Themes

1.      Consumer slowdown - watch employment levels, inflation, inventory levels, consumer retrenchment, increased savings

2.      Look for possible patterns of beginnings of previous severe bear markets.

3.      Look for how long it took in prior cycles for employment rates to change.  Was it quick or slow progression.

4.      Lenders have expressed that employment levels are the best indicator to watch.

5.      Manufactured Housing (MH) produced over 378,000 units in 1998.  Projected totals for 2006 are under 120,000 units.  To get an idea of what housing can do, one might want to look to see how long it took for inventory levels to adjust.  It is my understanding that towards 4Q06 was the first time that MH inventory was finally "worked off."   Speaking of MH, every so often , I might want to search "Barry Vogel Associates."

6.     "Exiting early could be costly, but exiting late could be disastrous."

7.      Inventories -  look for bloat...might be a lagging indicator...companies can produce inventory, expecting to sell, this creates eps, yet if  they build, charges will occur (be it non-cash).  That scenario would of course affect margins, budgets, etc.  Look at related metrics.

8.      Watch interest rates...remember Zweig

9.      Watch liquidity of World

10.    Watch Industrial Production.

11.    Watch Copper prices -  Richard Russell reminds us of Dr. Copper.  In 12/06 he was concerned if Copper went under $300.  As I write this copper is at approximately $260.

12.    Jamaica  (JSE)

        a.    Infrastructure

        b.    Beer - Diago PLC ( I think they own 20% of Red Stripe)

        c.    Water, roads, builders, capital, agriculture, Savings rate and Government

13.    Preservation of Capital

14.    Stay focused and unemotional in investing.  (fear, euphoria)

Investments  I might want to look at:

1.    Amazon

2.    Washington Mutual - I read that Nygren likes them.  I should compare their fundamentals to CountryWide.

3.    Home Depot

4.    Nabors - Grant's mentioned them favorably in mid to late 2006.

5.    Currency Funds -  ICPHX and MERKX

6.    Alternative Energies - Hydrogen

7.    Dataram (DRAM) - I heard a decent to high dividend

8.    Ski Mountains -  Final consolidator, years from now, could be cool.  American Skiing Company (AESK)

9.    NLY and TMA -  look for near Book Value

10.   Assorted companies

Company Themes

1.    Google - might be a cyclical

2.    HOG -  consumer retrenchment

3.    BBBY- consumer retrenchment

4.    CFC/FED/DSL -  Quality of earnings and accounting accruals.

5.    Merck - watch the bonds

Economic Profit

1.    ROIC - Return on Invested Capital

2.    Economic Profit = Accounting Profit - Cost of Equity (COE).

        a.    COE being "what can you expect elsewhere?"

        b.    COE% X  Shareholder Equity

3.    EVA = NOPAT - WACC%  X Total Capital

To Do List

1.    Study and understand stock option rules.  Very confusing since 123R.  Difficult to interpret, manipulate, etc.  Especially Statement of Cash Flows.

January 6, 2006



Theme for 2006 (just a possibility, not bankrolling this theme)

Housing Bust

speculators

consumer spending retrenchment

sub-prime lenders

Watch the 30 year rates (interesting, although short term rates have risen since 6/04, I have been tracking one lender and their mortgage rates. here is a table of some comparisons.


Type (no points) Jan 3, 06 June 30, 04

15 year Fixed 5.625% 5.25%
25 Year Fixed 6.125% not listed
20 Year Fixed 6.000% 5.75%
30 Year Fixed 6.125% 6.25%
1 Year Arm 4.625% 4.00%
3/1 year Arm 5.000% 4.25%
5/1 Year Arm 5.250% 4.875%
7/1 Year Arm 5.625% 5.250%
10/1 Year Arm 6.000% 5.875%

loan max for above $1.5M $750K

2. People I admire

Buffett
Springsteen
Others , just not listing em

3. Housing Inventory Ratio

Housing Inventory Ratio = Supply for Sale (or inventory)/Monthly Sales


4. Review all lesser looked at positions closely.

5. "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it." Warren Buffett

6. Things to look at

GRMN
NOVL
ADPT
Borland
Imclone
ADM (sugar and fuel)
Monsanto (feed the world, reduce needs of fertilizers)

7. OID said, and i think it was munger who quoted it

something like this, "recognize mistakes, and act on that recognition, and you will turn lemons into lemonade"

8. Friend of mine said seat on NYSE is worth $5.1M I don't know if that was a sale price in Dec 05, or if it was his interpretation of value. This is good to know if you own a position in a specialist or owner of seats.

Richard Russell says, watch the djia and make sure it doesn't close below 10,717.50

another oid on buffett and gold - I eliminated my 13 year precious metals position during 2005. It bothered me, that I couldn't figure out the reason it was a "safe haven" or "money substitute". I then reread OID year end 2000 and I think buffett said he grew up with gold, his dad loved gold, but he never understood it.



just some ramblings, doing lots of work on various positions. came off a real good year, hope to improve upon that. Returns last year for accounts that allowed shorting were beyond my expectations. Most accounts exceeded djia, spx and ixic. yet, i am only a long term investor and dont give a hoot about short term results.