January 8, 2016

DJIA  16,528

S&P 500  1949

 

I had the pleasure of speaking with legendary deceased investor Marty Zweig on several occasions. Marty's motto was "Don't fight the Fed." In his book, 'Winning on Wall Street' he discussed a market sell signal comes on the 2nd Prime Rate hike, or a full 1% jump in the Prime Rate.

I spoke with Marty Zweig on May 11, 2005. At the time, the Fed Funds rate was 3%. The current rate is 0.36%. Here are my notes in regards to Marty's response to if Fed Fund Rates increased, and if he thought the fighting the fed theory was still valid. I asked him about his "Fed Indicator" and how in his book, he was very clear on grading rate hikes in his book. His response was that short term rates are so low, probably caused by the fed over doing it, that the rise is not immediately concerning. He mentioned he would be concerned, very concerned, if federal funds rate went to 6%.

I wrote this on January 10, 2005. "I recently read Martin Zweig's book, "Winning on Wall Street". I wanted to try and get clarity of what his investment techniques would be in a rising interest rate environment. We certainly have a rising short term rate environment. Yet, the 10 year treasuries are not that far off of their recent lows. As I write this, the 10 year is at 4.26%. In October the 10 year treasury broke 4.00%, and went as high as 4.40% recently. Zweig writes that he is generally not too concerned with rates that are under 8%. Yet, we have had 5 rate hikes and more expected, so it is certainly difficult to interpret his written views from the book, which my copy is 1994, to today's environment.""

Here are several notes I have taken over the years during meetings I attended or readings of Marty Zweig.

http://rbcpa.com/2005_05_11.html

http://www.rbcpa.com/2008_05_21.html

http://rbcpa.com/Notes_to_Winning_On_WallStreet.html 

http://www.rbcpa.com/2004_03_09.html
 

If you have any concerns, please reach out to me. I would be happy to speak with those who are not clients or ours as well. As always, we welcome the opportunity to discuss our outlook and investments with you. 

My email is rredfield@rbcpa.com

Please feel free to contact me with anything you would like to discuss. Feel free to ask general questions on our Facebook page as well. 

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Respectfully submitted,

Ron Redfield
 


 

Ronald R. Redfield  cpa, pfs

Redfield, Blonsky & Starinsky, LLC

1024 South Avenue W.

PO Box 2069

Westfield, NJ 07091-2069

  
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Disclaimer

 

 

If you are a client of ours, and if you have questions regarding the company or investment mentioned in this report  please call our office. If you are not a client of Redfield, Blonsky & Starinsky, LLC Investment Management Division and are reading these notes, we urge you to do your own research. We will not be responsible for any person making an investment decision based on these notes. These notes are a "by-product" of our research. We are not responsible for the accuracy of these notes. We are not responsible for errors that may occur in these notes.  Please do not rely on us to monitor or update this or any other report we may issue. In theory, we could come across some type of data or idea, which causes us to eliminate our long or short  position of the company or investment mentioned in this report   from our portfolios.  We will not notify readerís revisions to these notes. We are not responsible to keep readers of these notes updated for changes or material errors or for any reason whatsoever.   We manage portfolios for clients, and those clients are our greatest concern as it relates to investing. Certain clients of Redfield, Blonsky & Starinsky, LLC may not have the company or investment mentioned in this report   in their portfolios. There could be various reasons for this. Again, if you would like to discuss the company or investment mentioned in this report  , please contact Ronald R. Redfield, CPA, PFS (partner in charge of investment management division). 

 

Information herein is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions, estimates, and projections constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. This publication is provided to you for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation. Redfield, Blonsky & Starinsky, LLC and Ronald R Redfield, CPA, PFS, may hold a position or act as an advisor on any investments mentioned in a report or discussion.