August 8, 2002 ( 12:30 PM)
I just finished reading one of my favorite subscriptions, which is called , " The High-Tech Strategist ", written by Fred Hickey. In the August issue he discusses how he does not yet perceive a bottom in the tech sector or the market overall. He mentions that optimism is still too high. He indicates that investor optimism has most certainly cooled, whereas Investment Manager optimism has not necessarily cooled (low cash levels). Just to mention that he feels the DJIA could go to 4000 and the Nasdaq to 600. I have read Hickey for over a year now, and what he states is not necessarily what is going to happen, nor should it be alarming for any of our clients. We continue to keep diversified portfolios that continue to focus on preservation of capital. Of course preservation of capital does not mean that we will consistently watch our money grow. As most of you have seen , we have most certainly seen a reduction in our portfolio profits. Nevertheless, the severity of the reduction has generally been materially below the losses of the overall markets. Again, please read our notes on July 24, 2002 and July 17, 2002 for further discussion. Here is my favorite takeaway I got from Mr. Hickey's 8 page report..." All things considered, my advice is to hit the beach over the next couple of weeks, spend some much needed quality time with the family....."..." prepare for what may be a most interesting September-October period (the worst two months of the year for the stock market historically).
As a side note to the above. I have been having a few weeks of joy, as I was able to experience my passion of visiting the music of Bruce Springsteen and The E-Street Band. I was able to journey over to 3 of the rehearsal shows (bringing 2 of my 3 kids to one of them) and then sharing the awesome experience of the show with my 7 year old daughter last night... As the Boss says.... "Waiting for a sunny day, gonna push the clouds away".
Have a great day everyone :-)