26-Sep-02 LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
FINANCIAL MODEL PROJECTIONS (GAAP)
FISCAL YEARS ENDED
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL REVENUES % Change Y-O-Y |
$12,321 | $9,857 -20.00% |
$10,842 10.00% |
$11,927 10.00% |
$13,119 10.00% |
$14,431 10.00% |
$15,874 10.00% |
$17,462 10.00% |
$19,208 10.00% |
| COST OF SALES % Total Revenues |
$10,769 80.00% |
$7,393 75.00% |
$6,939 64.00% |
$7,633 | $8,396 64.00% |
$9,236 64.00% |
$10,160 64.00% |
$11,176 64.00% |
$12,293 64.00% |
| GROSS PROFIT % Total Revenues |
$1,552 12.60% |
$2,464 25.00% |
$3,903 36.00% |
$4,294 36.00% |
$4,723 36.00% |
$5,195 36.00% |
$5,715 36.00% |
$6,286 36.00% |
$6,915 36.00% |
| R & D % Total Revenues |
$2,310 18.00% |
$1,380 14.00% |
$1,301 12.00% |
$1,431 12.00% |
$1,574 12.00% |
$1,732 12.00% |
$1,905 12.00% |
$2,095 12.00% |
$2,305 12.00% |
| SG&A % Total Revenues |
$3,969 30.00% |
$1,971 20.00% |
$1,410 13.00% |
$1,550 13.00% |
$1,706 13.00% |
$1,876 13.00% |
$2,064 13.00% |
$2,270 13.00% |
$2,497 13.00% |
| TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES % Total Revenues |
$6,279 50.96% |
$3,351 34.00% |
$2,711 25.00% |
$2,982 25.00% |
$3,280 25.00% |
$3,608 25.00% |
$3,969 25.00% |
$4,365 25.00% |
$4,802 25.00% |
| RESTRUCTURING CHARGES, ETC % Total Revenues |
$2,252 18.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
| OPERATING INCOME (LOSS) % Total Revenues |
-$6,979 -56.64% |
-$887 -9.00% |
$1,193 11.00% |
$1,312 11.00% |
$1,443 11.00% |
$1,587 11.00% |
$1,746 11.00% |
$1,921 11.00% |
$2,113 11.00% |
| INTEREST EXPENSE % Total Revenues |
$382 3.10% |
$350 3.55% |
$350 3.23% |
$300 2.52% |
$300 2.29% |
$300 2.08% |
$300 1.89% |
$250 1.43% |
$250 1.30% |
| OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE) % Total Revenues |
$292 2.37% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
| INCOME BEFORE TAXES % Total Revenues |
-$7,069 -57.37% |
-$887 -9.00% |
$1,193 11.00% |
$1,312 11.00% |
$1,443 11.00% |
$1,587 11.00% |
$1,746 11.00% |
$1,921 11.00% |
$2,113 11.00% |
| TAXES Tax Rate |
$4,757 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
| NET INCOME (LOSS) FROM OPERATIONS | -$11,826 | -$887 | $1,193 | $1,312 | $1,443 | $1,587 | $1,746 | $1,921 | $2,113 |
| INCOME (LOSS) DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS % Total Revenues |
73 0.59% |
0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CONVERSION EXP REDEEMABLE P/S % Total Revenues |
-$29 -0.24% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
| PREFERRED DIVIDENDS & ACCRETION % Total Revenues |
-$167 -1.36% |
$250 2.54% |
$250 2.31% |
$250 2.10% |
$250 1.91% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
$0 0.00% |
| NET INCOME (LOSS) | -$11,949 | -$637 | $1,443 | $1,562 | $1,693 | $1,587 | $1,746 | $1,921 | $2,113 |
| SHARES O/S | 3,427 | 3,600 | 4,700 | 4,800 | 4,900 | 5,000 | 5,100 | 5,200 | 5,300 |
| EPS | ($3.49) | ($0.18) | $0.31 | $0.33 | $0.35 | $0.32 | $0.34 | $0.37 | $0.40 |
| EPS GROWTH USING ABOVE EPS | #REF! | -94.92% | -273.44% | 6.01% | 6.19% | -8.12% | 7.84% | 7.88% | 7.92% |
| INPUT POSSIBLE PRICE / SHARE | 0.75 | 1 | 2 | 2.75 | 3 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 4.5 | 5 |
| MARKET CAP. USING ABOVE PRICE | $2,570 | $3,600 | $9,400 | $13,200 | $14,700 | $16,250 | $19,125 | $23,400 | $26,500 |
| POSSIBLE PRICE EARNINGS RATIO | -0.22 | -5.65 | 6.52 | 8.45 | 8.68 | 10.24 | 10.95 | 12.18 | 12.54 |
| PEG RATIO USING ABOVE DATA | #REF! | 0.06 | -0.02 | 1.41 | 1.40 | -1.26 | 1.40 | 1.55 | 1.58 |
| PRICE TO REVENUES USING ABOVE | 0.21 | 0.37 | 0.87 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.34 | 1.38 |
| PRICE / GROWTH FLOW RATIO | (0.24) | 10.01 | 3.31 | 4.25 | 4.34 | 4.70 | 5.03 | 5.60 | #DIV/0! |
PGFR cheap = 5
PGFR normal = 11
PGFR high > 15